SRI LANKA: BUILDING TRUST AND REASSURANCE THROUGH POLL AND PEACE. ………

SRI LANKA: BUILDING TRUST AND REASSURANCE THROUGH POLL AND PEACE. ………

An aftermath of Gen.Fonseka-episode, Indian Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s Sri Lanka visit, declaration of early Presidential Poll - November, 2009.

(Madan Menon Thottasseri)

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President Mahinda Rajapaksa was in the limelight for the past two months when he paved the way for the visit of a delegation comprising Indian Parliamentarians from the state of Tamil Nadu, to refugee camps in the island nation. People of India, particularly from the state of Tamil Nadu having empathy to the displaced war victims languishing in the refugee camps appreciated President Rajapaksa when he prevailed on the Dr. Karunanidhi, Chief Minister Of Tamil Nadu for steering a fresh relationship with the regime at Colombo and the rehabilitation of war-displaced people of Tamil origin.

Rajapaksa was not sarcastic when he asserted to the visiting Indian delegation that for the political solution to be arrived at towards the ethnic issues of Sri Lanka, he would expect the fulfillment of two conditions viz. the solution is to be acceptable to all communities and it should also be acceptable to the neighbor (India) as well!

The resignation of the Gen.Sarath Fonseka, Chief Of Defense Staff on Thursday, 12th November,2009 with his revelation that he was pained when Rajapaksa suspected his ‘too powerful army’ of staging a coup and even alerted Indian government on the same, have given new dimensions for peace prospects in Sri Lanka and the resettlement of the refugees. The General who was with the President to receive the Myanmarse Military ruler Than Shwe at the International airport on the early morning gave no hint to anybody that he is going to ignite a wild fire in the political arena of the island nation within few hours on the very same day.

The General’s letter of resignation revealed for the first time, the rift between the Army and the Government after the end of 26 years’ civil war in May, 2009.

Gen.Fonseka was the architect of the annihilation of the nonconformist LTTE in a historical military offensive in May, 2009. It is to be noted that the top General had the mettle to write in his resignation - “Your Excellency’s government has yet to win the peace, in spite of the fact that the Army under my leadership won the war”.

The turn of events in the island nation adds to the stimulating political mood as Gen.Fonseka emerged out as a potential challenger to the President. He had criticized the President for failing to win the Tamil people even after winning the war. The General who has been riding in a wave of popularity is being considered as a nationalist hero by the ethnic Sinhalese majority communities that are capable enough to split the ruling alliance’s support base in the next election.

Probably the government of India would have thought it fit to maintain confidentiality when Sri Lanka alerted on a suspected coup attempt. No one knows on what Rajapaksa wanted from India, whether Indian troops should intervene in the unfortunate event of a Coup or not. India had already learned lot of lessons from the past experience of sending troops to the island nation. Once India sent the Peace Keeping Force to Sri Lanka in 1987, but had to hastily fight with LTTE to please Sri Lankan regime under some pretext and finally withdrew in 1990. The unfortunate thing happened at the end was the assassination of the Prime Minister Rajeev Gandhi at a Chennai suburb during electioneering at a public meeting in 1991. Further there is lot of criticism against India in the interaction with the Sri Lankan government right from the past, in the western media. Things happening in the island nation due to the proximity with India are even termed as ‘Indian Conspiracy’; as if India was behind the formation of multiple Tamil groups, engineering various divisions amongst the nationalist Sinhalese groups etc. They even counseled the people of Sri Lanka to leave no room for fresh Indian manipulations!

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee who is experienced in handling Indo-Lankan issues would have visited Sri Lanka at this time primarily to deliver the 4th Lakshman Kadirgamar Memorial Lecture on Saturday 14th November, 2009 and be at the Sacred Tooth Relic of the Sri Dalada Malingawa Temple in Kandy, as programmed earlier.

He urged Lankans to make use of the defeat of terrorism and secessionism to permanently change the complexion of inter-ethnic relations for the betterment of the island nation. He reiterated that it will be important for everybody in Sri Lanka to realize that a Political settlement is not a ‘zero-sum game’. As a down-to-earth advice, he even cited India’s experience in managing multi-religious and multi-cultural societies. His speech gave thrust on democratic principles of devolution of power, equality for accessing opportunities and equal status before constitution that facilitated India to address divisive tendencies of all sorts. His said “clear separation of powers, rule of law, social justice, secularism, free press, vigilant citizens and civil groups have ensured that threats to your sovereignty from within or without are tackled with an inner strength that can come only through the ballot”.

The Indian Finance Minister showered praise on the Sri Lankan regime for lifting its economy towards a growth path, witnessing a decline in inflation and narrowing of the trade deficit. At a Lecture titled “Economics as a Driving Force of International Relations”, he remarked that the Sri Lankan economy had exhibited considerable resilience in the very first few months of the current year 2009 despite shocks from the global recession and the resultant economic slow-down.

He wanted Sri Lanka to dispel fears if any while entering into a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India as Sri Lanka is going to be a beneficiary for the same. He was quite affirming that CEPA will be in a win-win situation for both nations. He acknowledged that Sri Lanka’s corporate investment will bring added capital to Indian industries and the Free Trade Agreement between the nations will work out more advantageously for Sri Lanka. Minister Pranab Mukherjee, well known for his wisdom and mediation asked Sri Lanka to ensure that every stakeholder gains from the settlement irrespective of religion and ethnicity. He did show a good presence in Sri Lanka at a time when the island nation is passing through tough weather and seeks a political solution to the Tamil issue as a sequel to the victory over the militants.

Rajapaksa’s ruling Sri Lankan Freedom Party(SLFP) was keen on seeking people’s mandate for both Parliamentary and presidential elections upon winning the war against LTTE the in May, 2009. The Sri Lankan Constitution gives special power to the President to call for presidential elections once he completes four years in office, in the third week of November, 2009 of his six years’ tenure. Rajapaksa have been aiming for a sweeping victory in polls in his bid to get a second term as President.

It was quite interesting that Rajapaksa had checked out the opinions of his party men to decide on both elections, which one is to be held first or to both to be simultaneously held or not. In fact, earlier in July,2009 he had signaled for an early Presidential election prior to elections to the new Parliament. The Gen.Fonseka episode would have proved that it will not be a cakewalk for him in the Presidential election.

There will be new permutations and combinations in the offing for the next elections in Sri Lanka. The newly floated United National Front (UNF) lead by the former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe is poised to challenge president Mahinda Rajapaksa by asking him to declare an early Presidential poll if he is boasting of his popularity and stature. UNF had requisitioned to Gen.Fonseka to be their common candidate for the presidential election.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, Leader of United National Party (UNP), the main Party leading the Opposition Alliance (UNF) has seen the next Presidential candidate on Gen.Fonseka, to defeat Mahinda Rajapaksa. There were indications that UNP is roping in Tamil National Alliance (TNA) for support, though most of the Tamil speaking people will not be in favour of Gen.Fonseka for his ruthless tactics especially when the military crushed LTTE in the last phase of the war. They will a have an adverse opinion on Rajapaksa in the other camp too, for having displaced them in their own country. They may prefer for either staying away from polls or to field their own candidates to split votes.

By 19th November,2009 Ranil has come back with a series of ideas as conditions while meticulously persuading Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the Marxist-Sinhalese nationalist movement which has been condemning giving rights to minority Tamils, into the Alliance. Ranil foresees as a condition that Gen.Fonseka upon installation as President have to appoint him as the Prime Minister. Further Cabinet portfolios are to be offered to TNA and JVP; concurrently relinquish the Presidential powers by applying the 17th amendments of the Constitution. It will be a herculean task to accommodate TNA and JVP together into an Alliance as both are prone to lock-horns for every issue it is going to encounter while functioning as a sensible ruling front.

Still the question looms around political circles…. How could the Opposition Alliance win general elections when there is a 50-50 chance for both sides? How can it envisage a blooming victory with a two-thirds majority in the general parliamentary polls to enable Gen.Fonseka first to become the President and then to obligate for the wishes of Ranil? How could the front become a majority group without going through parliamentary polls first? Even if all goes well for a general election and then the Presidential Poll appointing the former General as president, will he take initiative to empower Ranil as Prime Minister by defusing his supreme Presidential powers?

When the resigned General was projected as a powerful candidate against Rajapaksa, it shatters the hope of the President himself and the Party which is anticipating keeping a firm grip on candidates for the Parliamentary elections so as to maneuver for two thirds majority of the alliance in the new Parliament. The constitutional majority is required by the President to propel for amendments as desired by his alliance. It will not be advisable for him now to sacrifice two years of his powerful term by going for a mid-term poll aiming an overwhelming victory in the general Parliamentary polls.

May be against the wishes of Rajapaksa, the crowd while attending the massive 19th convention of the ruling SLFP at the R.Premadasa Stadium on Sunday 15th November, 2009 responded positively for an early presidential election. This showed that the party’s rank and file are prepared to take on the challenge posed by the opposition which may select the controversial and discontented war hero Gen.Sarath Fonseka as the rival candidate against Rajapaksa. Finally he indicated that he is not assenting for a snap Presidential poll as desired by the party men knowing that over a period of time the public enthusiasm for the candidature of Gen. Fonseka will get defused . At the same time he can use the state power to expand and buttress his support base. He is not taking a risk as there is a chance that the weak opposition can get divided in due course, in a general election. A Presidential election at this stage will strengthen and unite the opposition that may hamper his prospects for a second term. There is little chance that the SLFP’s forum will take a different view against the wishes of Rajapaksa.

The alliances of Opposition parties have already confirmed on Monday 16th November, 2009 that Gen.Fonseka is their consensus candidate if there is a snap Presidential poll. Probably he will be the indispensable candidate even if the election is only after two years. Rajapaksa have to gather a lot of arsenals to fight in next Presidential poll wherein the two will be heading for a real face-off.

In his speech at the convention on 15th November, 2009 Rajapaksa had mocked the opposition which backs the actually deposed Gen.Fonseka. He recalled that UNP had betrayed the nation to LTTE and foreign powers. He gave a dig to Gen.Fonseka by stating “the notion to develop the country was set in motion, there could be patriots who could become traitors for political reasons”. He accused the opposition for politicizing the military.

Rajapaksa is fast in adding values to his alliance and the one which started with 13 constituent parties had already risen to a podium of 18. As a bonanza from the President, then came the unexpected good news to the people of Sri Lanka by relaxing the security clearance from defense authorities for travel between Colombo and Jaffna upon opening of the stopped A9-road.
There are 2,74,000 people who are accommodated in closed camps in Vavuniya,Jaffna, Mannar and Trincomalee districts. It is to be noted that the conditions in these camps are worst as noted by the Indian delegation from the State of Tamil Nadu. The Sri Lanka government declared that around 1,50,000 have already returned to their native villages and only the balance still stay in camps. The United Nation’s top official for Humanitarian Affairs and Relief Co-Ordinator John Holemes visited Sri Lanka to monitor the rehabilitation programme for the internally displaced persons (IDPs )initiated by the Sri Lankan government.

The U.N Secretary-General ban Ki-Moon welcomed the decision of the Government of Sri Lanka to grant increased freedom of movement to internally displaced persons (IDPs) still residing in camps in northern Sri Lanka. UN has long been pressing for in its intensive engagement with the authorities in Sri Lanka.The Secretary-General has urged Sri Lanka to continue to associate with the UN and other humanitarian partners to improve the quality of the returns process, including through consultation with the IDPs themselves, and to ensure the best possible assistance and services to returnees.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa's brother and Chairman of the Task Force for Rehabilitation and Resettlement, Basil Rajapaksa, recently announced in Vavuniya that the government had taken this decision to respect the human rights of the displaced persons. The relaxation for easing restrictions is w.e.f the first day of December, 2009 would be in place till the end of January, 2010 when all those displaced from the war are expected to be returned home.

Sri Lanka should take up the rehabilitation mission with more active international support and participation so as to ensure that the displaced Tamil speaking people are settled back into their native towns and villages by end January, 2010. Similarly the Sri Lankan refugees in India should also be allowed to go back to their native places and enable to settle down there. Primarily the removal of land mines from the villages will be a difficult task for the army. Probably the Sri Lankan government has to rebuild the very basic infrastructure viz. power connections, roads, bridges, telephones etc. in the majority affected areas and international donors may be willing to contribute for the same. India can help Sri Lanka by giving assistance in know-how on installation of telecommunication lines, construction of roads and bridges etc. Indian Railways can give assistance for reopening of bunged railway lines in Sri Lanka.

The promise to release Tamil refugees and detainees was cautiously welcomed by many international organizations and governments. The British Minister for International Development Mike Foster had been to Sri Lanka and expressed disappointment on the slow pace of releasing detainees and has warned of withdrawing funding for refugee camps in Sri Lanka. It is very unfortunate that the Sri Lankan regime never bothered to share details of plans for resettlement of detainees preventing global organizations to assist or guide on this respect.

Sri Lankan regime must gather support from all sections of society to arrive at a consensus on a challenging and lasting political solution for the peaceful muti-lingual and multi-religious society in the island nation. It is very important that government has to offer an economic package to refugees returning to native places, for commencement of farming; trade, business and industrial activities for generation of employment opportunities in the regions where they are being resettled.

Every common man in India or Sri Lanka will wish to find a political solution to ethnicity in the war-ravaged island. Both ruling and Opposition Fronts in Tamil Nadu, India can interact with refugees in various locations in Sri Lanka as well as in the state of Tamil Nadu for spawning constructive opinions to propose a Peace package and political-solution for the Tamils in Sri Lanka.

Pranab Mukherjee’s trip on the back-drop of Gen.Fonseka’s resignation with accusations against the Lankan regime acquired significance, to be observed by media. It is unlikely that the Pranab’s visit to Sri Lanka would have reserved to diplomatic pleasantries alone. Further it will be improbable that he is not keen to know on the progression in the on-going rehabilitation scheme for the internally displaced Tamil people.

Pranab Mukherjee had a Sunday breakfast-meeting on 15th November, 2009 with the President Rajapaksa to certainly discuss a host of political and economic issues of common interest before returning to India on the same day. It was quite strange that there was no briefing to the press and release of any press statement as well.

Obviously another strange thing already happened on his mission when Pranab Mukherjee set out for Colombo on 14th November, 2009. This time he deviated from his usual routine of having discussions with the Octogenarian Dr.Karunanidhi, the high profile Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu and the Leader of the unwavering UPA ally, before leaving for Sri Lanka. Though he had a stop-over at Chennai en route to Colombo, there was no meeting with the Chief Minister. Also he preferred to fly directly to New Delhi on his return journey which raised snooping points at Chennai, the strength hold of the UPA Patriarch.

Pranab Mukherjee is under an obligation to give the details of his interaction with the Sri Lankan government as early as possible. The Indian government is expected to be transparent on its dialogue, especially on the sensitive issues like the rehabilitation of Tamil refugees. The Minister, representing India, after his meetings with the Lankan President cannot show a bleak face to the media and keep mum as if he was on a private visit to Sri Lanka! One of the cabinet Ministers of the state of Tamil Nadu who came to receive Pranab Mukherjee while he had a brief stop at Chennai has quoted the senior central Minister that he would meet the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu on his mission after his return to New Delhi. It is yet to be seen whether he will come down to Chennai or not.

It is heartening that the Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, another brother of President and the Defense Secretary while speaking in a function at Colombo on Sunday 15th November, 2009 appreciated India’s co-operation and Support to Sri Lanka. He was confident of Sri Lanka’s commitment for rehabilitation of the displaced Tamils, surrendered or detained LTTE cadres which will empower them to know that the propaganda they were enticed by rebels all these years were false. The rehabilitation would allow them to re-enter the society as productive citizens in the long term. He said “we need to make sure that the unsafe areas in the north are cleared swiftly and the former victims of LTTE’s are resettled in their villages as soon as possible”.

Each and every citizen of Sri Lanka should contribute their individual might for Peace in their nation while rehabilitating the war displaced Tamil people and implementing a political solution for the Tamil ethnicity in the island nation. Both Presidential and Parliamentary polls will be a critical factor for the same.

By the time this Article is to be concluded, there came the proclamation on 23 November, 2009 by President Rajapaksa calling for a snap presidential election to be held on 23 January, 2010 ; well ahead of the general parliamentary elections to be held in April, 2010.The election commission will be confirming the date of Presidential poll.

Rajapaksa would have thought that through a quirk of Sri Lankan constitution, an exclusiveness favourably available to President wherein the President will be authorized to serve the final two years of his term regardless of the outcome of the early snap polls held after four years prior to the statutory six years’ term.

Rajapaksa have to consolidate his popularity while he faces a strong challenge from the war hero Gen.Fonseka. In case Rajapaksa is defeated and even if he constitutionally regains the position to continue for next two years; will it not degrade his personal and fronts’ positions in general polls to be held in April, 2010?

Probably, President Rajapaksa would have opted for early presidential poll as he is too keen on disapproving the Gen.Fonseka’s claim that he only responsibly lead the war for victory of Sri Lanka and thus he is more popular than the President. Rajapaksa wanted to stem the opportunist opposition camp’s conspiracy to dethrone him by propping up an opportunist, the self-praising and disgruntled war hero Gen.Fonseka as his rival candidate.
Meanwhile Gen.Fonseka who has been asked to vacate General’s House has filed the petition to Supreme Court to allow him to continue to stay at the fortified residence and also the restrain the government from reducing his security.

Sri Lankan parties representing the minority Tamil speaking people met in a conference at Zurich from November 20 to 22. The representatives were drawn from both ruling and opposition fronts attended the conference organized by the London Information Centre of the University Of Essex and hosted by the Swiss government. The conclave resolved that Tamils comprising indigenous ‘Ceylon Tamils’, Tamils of Indian origin and Tamil Muslims would work towards a just and durable political solution through a dignified, respectful and peaceful process. The conference affirmed the need for unity and consensus amongst Tamil speaking people while acknowledging the differences on some issues.

The Rajapaksa government had reluctantly permitted its Tamil ministers to participate the conclave at Zurich. The Sinhalese nationalists including the pro-Rajapaksa party, ‘Jathika Hela Urumaya’(JHU) expressed their displeasure by accusing that it is a ploy of western NGOs to weaken the government and disintegrate the island nation.

Rajapaksa on Tuesday 25 November, 2009 had ruled out the re-merger of Northern and Southern provinces to form a single Tamil speaking province. The two provinces once merged together following the Indo-Sri Lankan Accord-1987, were unnecessarily demerged against the wishes of Tamil people, by a Supreme Court decree based on technical reasons in 2006. He explained that the Presidential poll ahead of two years enables Tamils of North and East to know that they have the right to exercise their franchise in the nation’s Presidential election, as they were prevented by LTTE from voting in the last elections held in 2006.

By the time this Article is to be concluded, there are new developments happening in Sri Lanka. Rajapaksa government wants to be very considerate to the angry war hero, Gen.Sarath Fonseka by granting his request for 66-member security contingent. The soft approach to him has come at a time when he is all set to float his own party and contest as the common candidate for the Presidential poll to be held in January, 2010.

Mano Ganesan, leader of Western People’s Front, an association of Tamils based in Europe, who actively participated in the Zurich conference has come to Sri Lanka accepting the invitation of Gen.Fonseka and had detailed discussion on the need for constitutional reforms and plan for protection of rights to Tamil minority. The Opposition Front headed by Ranil Wickremesinghe had prevailed on JVP, the nationalist Party to accept for the candidature of Gen.Fonseka for the Presidential poll.

What ever be the out come of Presidential and then the general Parliamentary Polls, who ever be the next President and even if the executive Presidency is abolished giving powers to Prime Minister, experiments on coalitions with parties of different ethnic communities or races under the banner of a common political front have to be manifested to form a government in Sri Lanka.

Any Sri Lankan regime, here afterwards has to understand that there should be thrust on democratic principles of equality and devolution of power for people to avail equal opportunities and gain equal status under the constitution.

Let Sri Lanka build up trust and reassurance through poll and Peace.

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